THURS. JUL. 24 THOUGHTS

A few days ago, the term ‘message of the market’ was discussed. One of the things every trader should do is seek out strange nuances that one would think are not “right” in order to determine if something a little deeper is going on. Now, this is perhaps one day late, but a point here can still be made. One of the more interesting things is the fate of the trucking industry these days. Shares of YRC Worldwide (YRCW) traded below 12 on January 4; since that time, the stock has almost doubled. The stock of Arkansas Best Corporation (ABFS) has more than doubled since its yearly low and is actually trading near an all-time high. To the average investor, this makes no sense at all. Why would these stocks be doing so well? Stocks do not trade solely on current factors; rather, the future tends to be priced in. This is why United Airlines (UAUA) can write off more than $21 a share in losses yet have a stock that jumps from 5 to 8 on the day they announce it. Now, we are not going to forecast what is to come, but…but…but why would these trucking stocks be doing so well, yesterday aside? What they are telling us is that the crisis we are undergoing is a financial crisis with some pressure coming out of oil and fuel. Clearly, many goods are being shipped throughout the country and eroding oil prices are going to help the bottom lines of these trucking companies. So, should you go out and buy shares of the truckers for your IRA? Maybe. But that is not what is being proposed here. Rather, it is a theme which we preach all the time- keep in mind the macro while trading the micro. Just because you may not believe in the YRCW story does not mean it cannot go higher so do not get caught up in trying to outthink the situation. This is another reason why people commonly lose; Downey (DSL) ‘seems’ cheap while YRCW ‘seems’ expensive. On a macro basis, that is another issue entirely, but on a micro basis, again, do not get caught up in ‘beliefs’ of a macro view which have little to nothing at all to do with intra-day trading.


Reiterating-

New code for the next few days if the whole story is not there due to an expansive number of ideas-
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified

Good-

QCOM- postponed earnings last night; stock up in anticipation of takeover announcement and/or settlement of Nokia (NOK) lawsuit. Late in evening, they did announce settlement with NOK.

BIDU- great earnings

VAR- great earnings

CAL,DAL,UAUA,LCC,AMR,NWA- among other airlines with continued strength yesterday

WB- announced CEO bought significant stock

NTGR – good earnings

SLM- decent earnings

AMZN- fair earnings; did trade to 77ish last night so short covering could occur.

CVH,AET,XL- all closed at/near highs of day; likely will be some more momentum all else equal

BG- good earnings

CELG- good earnings

GR- good earnings

LLL- good earnings

POT- great earnings

RSH- solid earnings

TMO- great earnings

TRA- good earnings

UNP- good earnings


Bad-

CMG- bad earnings

MCK- bad earnings

XTO-issuing 26 million shares at 48. If it opens below 48, looking to buy above 48. And especially looking to buy thru unch when/if because it shows offering is factored in. Could be best trade of day if set-up presents itself

FFIV- bad earnings

OMTR- bad earnings

RYL- bad earnings

SWIR- abominable earnings

WFR- atrocious numbers

AFL- disappointing earnings

CDNS- terrible warning

CFW- very weak on bad earnings yesterday; if it opens higher, short thru unch.

Earnings-

THURS JUL 24 BEF

ABC .66/17.63B .72/17.71B 2.81/70.59B 3.19/73.96B

ABI .45/590M .39/540M 1.70/2.21B 1.91/2.35B

ALK -.41/937M .61/1.01B -1.82/3.64B -1.69/3.70B

AN .31/4.10B .35/4.24B 1.27/16.33B 1.42/16.46B

ASH .86/2.13B .77/2.11B 2.94/8.25B 3.39/8.64B

AUO .57/4.07B .53/4.02B 2.83/16.83B 2.09/17.72B

BBW -.12/96M .03/110M .70/486M .81/507M

BC -.12/1.42B -.27/1.14B -.42/5.29B .65/5.15B

BDC .90/573M .98/588M 3.46/2.28B 3.94/2.37B

BDX 1.10/1.79B 1.11/1.81B 4.37/7.05B 4.89/7.63B

BG 2.27/13.25B 2.37/13.22B 9.16/55.10B 9.54/60.61B

BLL 1.11/2.09B 1.17/2.05B 3.84/7.74B 4.30/8.00B

BMY .40/5.13B .43/5.21B 1.65/20.84B 1.96/22.39B

CBE .91/1.70B .93/1.68B 3.59/6.61B 3.93/7.04B

CELG .35/539M .38/575M 1.50/2.20B 2.32/2.95B

CLP .52/78M .52/78M 2.18/311M 2.21/324M

CSH .61/239M .64/243M 3.08/1.00B 3.41/1.05B

DO 2.72/919M 2.24/858M 10.03/3.55B 12.39/4.17B

DOW .85/14.89B .74/14.32B 3.23/58.30B 3.01/51.06B

ECA 1.86/6.40B 2.01/6.27B 6.77/27.65B 7.74/30.17B

ECL .47/1.54B .55/1.58B 1.88/6.15B 2.15/6.60B

ELN -.13/249M -.12/269M -.54/1.05B -.14/1.42B

EMN 1.53/1.80B 1.35/1.75B 5.57/7.01B 5.67/7.13B

ESI 1.05/246M 1.08/248M 4.47/988M 4.91/1.10B

ESV 1.98/609M 2.17/632M 8.23/2.46B 8.71/2.69B

F -.27/34.60B -.68/28.36B -1.01/133.75B -.30/136.26B

FBR ? ? ? ?

FCL .21/408M .37/419M 1.27/1.66B 5.66/2.11B

FLIR .27/252M .31/270M 1.21/1.09B 1.48/1.29B

GR 1.08/1.80B 1.09/1.81B 4.51/7.24B 5.01/7.83B

HOT .52/1.50B .66/1.58B 2.45/6.22B 2.76/6.53B

IMCL .31/165M .30/172M 1.26/680M 1.51/794M

IVGN .56/350M .56/346M 2.43/1.41B 2.62/1.51B

JNS .30/285M .32/289M 1.20/1.15B 1.51/1.30B

KCI .93/447M .93/479M 3.79/1.85B 4.13/2.06B

KMB 1.04/4.96B 1.03/4.98B 4.29/19.89B 4.65/20.94B

LH 1.24/1.16B 1.23/1.16B 4.82/4.65B 5.42/4.83B

LLL 1.63/3.66B 1.68/3.63B 6.68/14.66B 7.47/15.62B

LLY 1.00/5.02B 1.01/5.02B 3.94/20.34B 4.30/21.56B

LTM .50/193M .56/203M 2.06/787M 2.43/943M

LUV .12/2.86B .06/2.79B .26/10.94B .37/12.09B

MHS .54/12.56B .58/12.56B 2.31/51.03B 2.71/53.45B

MMM 1.35/6.69B 1.39/6.68B 5.46/26.58B 5.96/28.19B

MNI .21/495M .20/472M .86/1.97B .82/1.84B

MWV .20/1.69B .40/1.78B .97/6.76B 1.33/6.91B

NCC -.26/1.78B -.12/1.80B -.80/7.42B .07/7.44B

NCX .47/1.90B .94/2.06B 2.73/7.46B 2.47/7.36B

NEM .48/1.51B .58/1.63B 2.39/6.74B 2.93/7.31B

NFX .97/534M 1.14/589M 4.38/2.25B 6.63/2.93B

ODFL .57/416M .55/421M 1.89/1.61B 2.28/1.80B

ORI -.05/992M -.03/1.01B -.15/3.94B .67/4.02B

OXY 2.71/6.77B 3.02/7.10B 10.66/24.68B 11.10/25.45B

PCH .38/414M .60/434M 1.98/1.66B 2.10/1.68B

PCZ 2.49/8.05B 2.97/8.16B 9.90/31.38B 10.84/36.15B

PENN .43/627M .54/660M 1.98/2.54B 2.37/2.69B

PLD 1.09/274M 1.15/275M 4.79/1.08B 5.17/1.09B

POOL 1.07/698M .45/519M 1.27/1.86B 1.56/1.94B

POT 2.61/2.52B 3.26/2.86B 11.61/10.51B 20.02/15.65B

RIO .96/12.35B .80/12.18B 3.12/43.94B 4.04/50.67B

ROH .85/2.51B .97/2.50B 3.73/10.07B 4.26/10.67B

RSH .26/909M .31/934M 1.60/4.12B 1.58/4.05B

RTN .93/5.63B .96/5.67B 3.92/22.93B 4.42/24.34B

SCHL .81/552M -.90/321M 2.74/2.28B 2.14/2.06B

SII .89/2.38B .99/2.55B 3.81/10.00B 4.72/11.67B

SNA 1.06/757M .88/741M 4.04/3.00B 4.54/3.18B

SSP .11/256M .07/246M .46/1.04B .28/981M

SU .71/3.45B 1.35/4.45B 4.31/23.22B 6.17/20.28B

SYT ?/1.60B ?/? ?/9.24B 3.32/10.63B

TASR .03/28M .05/31M .15/115M .32/141M

TMO .77/2.62B .78/2.63B 3.15/10.65B 3.65/11.36B

TRA 1.22/824M .98/864M 4.44/2.90B 4.97/3.08B

UNP .92/4.52B 1.15/4.74B 4.06/18.20B 5.01/19.73B

UST .95/509M .92/497M 3.68/2.01B 3.91/2.08B

VDSI .15/34M .16/37M .64/143M .80/178M

WCC 1.36/1.54B 1.41/1.54B 5.09/6.03B 5.41/6.12B

WFSL .36/83M .36/84M 1.54/325M 1.66/350M

XRX .26/4.54B .29/4.46B 1.27/18.36B 1.40/18.79B

ZBRA .46/254M .47/256M 1.88/1.02B 2.15/1.10B

THURS JUL 24 AFT

AFFX .05/92M .11/102M .35/394M .56/438M

AVID -.10/211M .10/220M .08/882M .69/934M

BEN 1.66/1.51B 1.69/1.50B 7.00/6.20B 7.48/6.29B

BMC .43/434M .51/470M 2.15/1.93B 2.45/2.07B

BNI 1.30/4.44B 1.65/4.69B 5.91/18.18B 7.01/19.64B

BUCY .66/583M .75/627M 2.81/2.41B 3.64/2.80B

CAKE .29/412M .33/416M 1.13/1.65B 1.26/1.74B

CB 1.47/3.07B 1.39/2.96B 6.03/12.15B 5.84/12.10B

CCI -.07/371M -.05/378M -.22/1.51B .09/1.62B

CENX 2.24/548M 1.63/560M 7.01/2.12B 7.15/2.27B

CMO .61/100M .61/100M 2.38/407M 2.44/407M

COG .75/238M .90/280M 3.04/1.03B 3.64/1.24B

CPHD -.06/45M -.05/48M -.18/190M .08/242M

CYMI .39/124M .37/122M 1.65/499M 2.04/544M

CYN .81/229M .85/233M 3.39/930M 3.84/990M

DDR .88/230M 1.23/232M 3.94/924M 4.16/966M

EMN 1.53/1.80B 1.35/1.75B 5.57/7.01B 5.67/7.13B

EWBC .05/104M .16/106M .48/436M 1.13/462M

FDRY .15/153M .17/162M .65/637M .78/710M

FII .60/321M .63/325M 2.41/1.28B 2.67/1.35B

FLEX .28/8.30B .31/8.92B 1.25/35.59B 1.47/39.39B

FTI .73/1.37B .77/1.39B 3.00/5.57B 3.60/6.29B

IBKR .50/431M .47/401M 2.11/1.78B 2.32/1.95B

IM .35/8.58B .40/8.79B 1.72/35.89B 1.96/37.88B

JNPR .27/852M .29/888M 1.13/3.50B 1.39/4.12B

MCHP .40/270M .41/278M 1.66/1.12B 1.90/1.23B

MSCC .34/129M .35/133M 1.32/512M 1.62/579M

NETL .37/36M .37/38M 1.51/147M 1.77/176M

OLN .49/408M .53/442M 2.03/1.68B 2.20/1.78B

PKI .34/508M .36/500M 1.47/2.06B 1.70/2.23B

PLXS .39/441M .43/462M 1.88/1.81B 2.01/2.01B

RMBS -.12/34M -.12/31M -.48/155M -.38/155M

ROP .79/603M .83/596M 3.19/2.39B 3.62/2.60B

RVBD .11/77M .13/82M .49/322M .75/404M

SNV .13/384M .15/391M .65/1.57B .85/1.68B

SRCL .42/264M .43/268M 1.70/1.07B 1.98/1.18B

TRMB .45/378M .36/338M 1.55/1.42B 1.82/1.61B

VSEA .25/181M .27/183M 1.54/874M 2.07/916M

WDC .81/1.88B .98/2.03B 4.19/7.96B 4.10/8.39B

WOOF .45/333M .43/334M 1.57/1.29B 1.82/1.43B

WYNN .90/819M .67/739M 3.06/3.10B 2.99/3.80B
YRCW .29/2.40B .51/2.42B .64/9.34B 1.74/9.48B


Good luck today.