WED. OCT. 22- Volatility Continues

And this blog post is the antithesis to yesterday’s post (to an extent). The one corollary which must be emphasized about the hyper fast trading is…it must only be done in a hyper-fast market. Yesterday was a busy day by standards of, say, the early summer market in terms of range and volatility. However, the moves were not quite as vicious therefore the hyper-fast 20-30 cent plays were not as prevalent. More importantly, one cannot simply be buying or shorting stocks based on prices or numbers or volume points just ‘cause. There are several factors which go into trades when the market is calmer: news flow, the technical pattern (i.e. near a breakout or breakdown), the market must be going in the direction of the trade you want to put on, and there should be a potential for making at least 20 cents in the trade. As the afternoon progressed yesterday, day traders continued to trade as they have the last few weeks with many losing money gradually as a result of scalping. Furthermore, people were chasing stocks without waiting for them to stagnate, i.e. buying and selling stocks which had previously moved a dollar or more in less than five minutes prior. Realize the market on a day-to-day basis that you are dealing with. If you fail to heed the market action rather than trying to beat the market, what will happen is that you will become a victim of that cold heartless market.

Overnight, treasury rates continued to plunge from Monday’s levels, oil fell, the dollar weakened against the yen further destroying the carry trade while strengthen against the Euro currencies, and equity markets worldwide got hit hard. Look for a horrible opening today; the dollar and bond market must stabilize today else it will be a terrible day for the stock market.


Reiterating-If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified


Good-

AAPL- terrible numbers, but stock rallied last night; best trade in all of this way to buy it thru unchanged yesterday afternoon, but no recommendations here except to track it as a proxy for NASDAQ today

BRCM- fair earnings, but stock has beaten beaten down so looking for a bounce

CERN- good earnings

VMW – good earnings

CREE- good earnings

YHOO- terrible earnings, but stock bid because of thought that there may be a bidder lurking

CHRW- decent earnings

QLGC- good earnings

CMC- announced a major stock buyback

NUE, DUK- on “Mad Money” last night

SCON, GRRF- micro-cap stocks which closed near their highs; looking for an A-B-A2 to the upside in both thru yesterday’s highs

COH- looking for follow-through to upside; if it opens higher, looking for A-b-A2 to upside or short thru unch to downside

LMT- drubbed yesterday. Looking for A-B-A2 to upside or short thru unch depending on how it acts post-open

DDR- if it cannot bounce at the open, may fall apart; looking to short thru 13.17 if it opens higher and A-B-A2 to downside from there

ICOG- received gigantic settlement from BA- if you can buy this at 1 or less pre-open, do so

MCD- good earnings

NOC- beat slightly and raised guidance

GD- good earnings

Bad-

ILMN- great earnings, but weak last night- looking for A-B-A2 to downside or preferably a buy thru unch

CVH- abominable earnings warning

EW- bad earnings

SIAL –terrible earnings

RIMM- has been horribly weak for a spate now; if it opens higher this morning and breaches unch, it is likely a short and may well breach 50

ERTS, FMCN, PCAR, NIHD, CNQR- among several mid-cap techs that closed near their lows…if any open higher and go negative, they are shorts otherwise A-B-A2 short covering upside pattern

TEX- closed very weak; looking for more follow-through downside action

BA- bad earnings

FCL- terrible earnings and warned

KMB- beat slightly for quarter, but warned in its outlook

TRV- reduced guidance

BHI – missed earnings

R- bad earnings; warned

ATI- warned on future guidance

SNDK- Samsung pulled their bid; stock should get drubbed

APD- bad earnings





Earnings list:


WED OCT 22 BEF

ABFS ABI AMG

APD ARW ATI

BA BSX CFR

COP DOV EMC

FCL GD GENZ

HCBK KCI KMB

MCD MDCO MRK

NFX NITE NOC

NTRS PFCB PM

ROH R RYN

SEIC SOV T

TCB TRV WB

WIT WLP WYE


WED OCT 22 AFT

ADS ALL AMGN

AMZN BCR BIDU

CMG CNB CNW

CTXS CVA EQIX

FFIV FNF GRT

ISIL LHO LRCX

NE NTRI NUVA

OMTR OSIP PHM

PRE RAI RHI

RNT RRC RYL

SLM STX TEX

TMK TSCO WSH

Good luck today.

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