MON. JUL. 28 THOUGHTS

One of the most common questions any trader has is: “When I buy a stock and expect it to immediately move but it does not act as expected, what should I do?” The answer to this oftentimes is stunningly simple. Add the word ‘time’ to the equation. For instance, let’s say a stock opens at 19, up 2 points. It falls to 18.75. You buy 19.01 in thinking that it should go to 19.25 fast with the other thought being that it should not below 19. It goes to 19.10 and gets stuck…you sell half your position. At this point, your focus should not necessarily be on the 19.25 if the stock peels back a little; rather you know it should not go below 19 because the old resistance point now becomes support. Therefore, the second the stock goes below 19, you should be out. This becomes almost mechanical over time if you practice it enough. So, the short and sweet answer is: if a position does not act as expected, make sure you remember what your instinct/thoughts told you about the time horizon for the move to happen when you entered into the position. If the move is not commiserating with your time horizon, exit and go on to the next trade.

Overnight, the markets were relatively quiet in Asia with prices relatively flat; in Europe, the bourses are down across the board albeit off of their lows. Oil is back up. Basically, there is a mish-mosh of news; the FNM/FRE bill was approved, the XMSR-SIRI deal was approved, and Steve Jobs should be OK according to the “New York Times.” But people are still nervous so look for tricky choppy sloppy summer Monday trading.

Reiterating-New code for the next few days if the whole story is not there due to an expansive number of ideas-If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified

Good-

AMGN- way way up on positive phase II drug news

CALM- solid earnings

AAPL – up on a “NY Times” article which implies that Jobs is OK . Stock should stay up today; short thru unch particularly if market weakens later else it could be a meandering A-B-A2 to upside

KFT- good earnings

GBCI- closed strong Friday

IBCP- closed strong on Friday

SOHU- great earnings

IOC- expected to announce good results of an oil find imminently

FNM/FRE- housing deal approved over the weekend by the Senate

XMSR/SIRI- merger finally approved by FCC over weekend. Terms are 4.6 shares of SIRI for every share of XMSR

Bad-

AMFI- closed near a low; may follow through in that whole ‘separation of good vs bad banks’ theme

IBNK- closed on its low

FRGB- yet another bank closing on its low

SSP- weak on Friday

Earnings-

MON JUL 28 BEF

BOH .93/160M .96/164M 3.93/654M 3.96/376M

CALM ? ? ? ?

FMX .64/3.95B .61/4.08B 2.36/15.26B 2.63/16.80B

KFT .50/10.70B .46/10.32B 1.89/42.95B 2.04/44.36B

L 1.14/? 1.01/? 4.30/18.11B 5.15/18.96B

LO 1.38/1.04B 1.40/1.04B 5.24/3.77B 5.73/3.82B

ONB .29/103M .28/103M 1.08/418M 1.12/420M

SOHU .67/97M .71/107M 2.67/392M 3.53/484M

SPG 1.49/884M 1.58/917M 6.44/3.77B 6.95/3.99B

TSN .12/7.00B .16/7.09B .43/27.44B 1.07/28.57B

VZ .65/24.19B .67/24.64B 2.61/96.52B 2.90/102.26B

WWY .68/1.53B .65/1.45B 2.52/5.92B 2.77/6.36B

MON JUL 28 AFT

AMGN 1.02/3.58B 1.04/3.59B 4.19/14.42B 4.45/14.91B

ATHR .30/121M .34/133M 1.31/515M 1.56/617M

BBV ?/? ?/? 2.58/30.21B 2.91/33.05B

CF 3.60/1.21B 3.65/1.12B 14.54/4.24B 19.78/5.01B

CHE .69/284M .72/288M 2.95/1.16B 3.29/1.22B

CGNX .22/67M .23/66M .91/265M 1.15/303M

CMP .26/158M .50/177M 4.13/1.08B 6.44/1.28B

CR .88/709M .92/717M 3.50/2.82B 3.90/2.96B

CYH .57/2.75B .59/2.79B 2.35/11.13B 2.94/11.87B

HIG 2.10/7.21B 2.07/6.91B 9.04/21.24B 10.07/26.05B

MOS 1.64/2.85B 2.85/3.95B 4.24/9.18B 12.83/17.64B

MPG -.85/140M -.85/141M ?/582M -3.34/575M

MTH -.69/368M -.53/397M -3.12/1.58B -.27/1.42B

MTW .89/1.23B .85/1.21B 3.42/4.80B 3.87/5.40B

OMI .55/1.77B .57/1.79B 2.31/7.17B 2.59/7.56B

PAC .50/82M .54/87M 2.19/344M 2.32/367M

PCL .16/346M .36/398M 1.13/1.53B 1.38/1.58B

PRE 2.59/1.06B 2.70/1.21B 10.14/4.44B 9.96/4.43B

RCII .56/704M .50/694M 2.24/2.88B 2.42/2.96B

RKT .70/774M .76/785M 2.63/2.86B 3.24/3.33B

SLG 1.71/262M 1.52/254M 6.22/1.02B 6.47/1.03B

STR .85/876M .82/825M 3.57/3.40B 3.95/3.50B

UHS .91/1.27B .81/1.27B 3.79/5.13B 4.13/5.53B

WBSN .31/84M .30/83M 1.24/335M 1.38/352M

ZRAN .15/133M .29/154M .72/539M .90/582M


Good luck today.

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