Thursday, October 23, 2008

THURS. OCT. 23- So, When Does The FIscal Year End?

Halloween or perhaps the approach of Halloween may well cause the advent of more than a few tricks for the market. The key reason for this is that most mutual funds base their fiscal year-end on October 31. Most people do not know why; here is the reason: mutual funds are required by federal law to distribute, prior to December 31, the net capital gains realized through October 31. The federal tax law actually imposes an excise tax on amounts not distributed by said mutual funds. Thus, this leads to one thing that happens every year much less one thing new to fiscal 2008. What occurs every year is window dressing. Funds do not want to show losers on their accounts yet they also don’t want to show losing positions. Thus, what often occurs the last few days of October is that winners are sold to lock in performance whereas the losers are propped up to lessen the decline. It is all one big game which has gone on since your friends at the Fed decided this was wise tax policy. What is different in calendar 2008, however, is that a lot of investors want to cash out. They just do not want to be invested anymore- first it was the ‘smart’ money like the Blackstone Group (BX) which debuted at the height of the hedge fund frenzy. Then, it was the hedge funds which have caused massive havoc with all markets. Finally are the plebians who just cannot take it anymore and/or have been margined out. This is where we are now. So, the markets will vacillate wildly between now and month’s end on the forces of mutual funds trying to shore up their performance yet everything and everyone else conspiring against them.

Markets throughout Asia were pummeled which followed through to Europe. Futures initially were very strong overnight but have come all the way in. With no major news out and worries abounding, look for choppy trade. There will be more selling at least initially. From there, there will probably be a small rally after the thrashing of the last couple of days. After that, keep your eyes peeled to bonds, oil, and the dollar for direction.


Reiterating-If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified


Good-

AMGN- beat and raised guidance

BIDU- beat, but lukewarm guidance

ADS- solid earnings

NE- great earnings

FFIV- great earnings

CTXS- fantastic earnings

CMG- good earnings and announced a buyback

TSCO- good earnings

BG- raised guidance

NOV- good guidance

BMY- solid earnings

DO- beat earnings

DOW- CEO steadfastly optimistic

FLIR- good earnings

LLL- good numbers

RTN- beat earnings

TRA- amazingly good numbrs

WCC- beat and raised

ALXN- beat and raised guidance

POT- good numbers


Bad-

AMZN- atrocious earnings warning

ALL- terrible earnings, but stock bounced a little after-hours…may be strong today if market good

LRCX- bad earnings

NTRI- warned on its outlook

DDR- continued weak; if it opens higher, looking to short thru unch otherwise A-B-A2 in either direction

ISIL- missed earnings

STX- terrible earnings warning

LXU- painfully weak; looking to short through yearly/daily low of 8.20

WFMI- closed weak

FMCN- followed through on Tuesday’s poor performance with more downside yesterday

SGR- closed just off a multi-day low

TXT- closed near a low

WYN- closed at its low

AEM- stunningly down almost 50% in days; looking for an A-B-A2 reversal if commodities bounce

BDK- warned

HOT- warned

JCI- warned

UNP- disappointing earnings

PLD- warned




Earnings list:


THURS OCT 23 BEF

ALK AMTD AVT

BC BDK

BG BHE BMY

CBE CCE CELG

DLX DO DOW

ECA ECL ELN

EME EQT

ESI ESV FLIR

GR HOT JBLU

JCI JNS KMT

LH LLL LLY

LTM MO NCR

NCX NIHD NOV

NYT ORI PCZ

PDS PFS PLD

POT RGC RSH

RTN RX SO

STI TMO TNB
TRA UNP UPS
WCC XEL XRX



THURS OCT 23 AFT

ARBA BNI BUCY

CAKE CB CMO

CPX CYN

DDR DECK DST

DV ELX EMN

FII IBKR IM

JNPR MCHP MPWR

MSFT OLN PKI

RIO RMBS ROP

RVBD SNV SYNA

TRMB VAR WDC

WFR WOOF YRCW

ZMH AFL BEN

ARG AFFX EMN



Good luck today.

www.protradingnetwork.com
.

1 Comments:

At October 28, 2008 8:56 AM , Blogger ProTrading Network said...

TUES OCT 28 BEF


ACH AMED ASH


BYD CHKP CP


CRS CVG EL


ETR FMX GPI


IPG KDN KSU


MAS MHP MLM


MSO OXY PCX


RCI RCL ROC


SAP SCHN SEPR


SII TIN UA


USG VLO VSH


WDR WHR X



TUES OCT 28 AFT


ACE AMX APOL


BBOX BEC BMRN


BXP CAI CBI


CEPH CPHD CMP


CTX DRIV DWA


FISV FLS FMC


FORM JLL LNC


MCK MOLX MTW


NETL NLC STM


URI VPRT WBSN


WLT WRB XRAY



WED OCT 29 BEF


AET


ANR


BPO


BWA


CAH


CETV


CINF


CMCSA


GLW


GRMN


HAR


HERO


HES


IMA


JNY


KFT


LAZ


LM


MCO


MDP


MWV


NBL


NEM


NXY


NYB


OC


ODP


PG


PX


Q


SEE


SLAB


SPR


SPW


SU


SVVS


TWI


WEC


WPI


WED OCT 29 AFT


AAP


AEM


AMP


AW


BGC


BMR


CA


CBT


CGNX


CLF


CME


COG


CW


CYH


DPL


DTE


EQR


FRT


FSLR


GVA


HBI


HIG


HIW


HLX


HRS


ITRI


JDSU


MET


MUR


MXIM


OI


OIS


ORLY


PRU


STR


SYMC


TRN


TSO


V


VCLK


WLL


THURS OCT 30 BEF


ABC


APA


AVP


BCO


BLL


BJS


CAM


CBS


CI


CL


CMC


CTL


CVS


D


DBD


EK


ENDP


ENR


EXPE


FAF


GNK


ICE


IGT


IP


JAH


LZ


MOT


MRO


MYL


NVO


NWL


OCR


PAG


PDE


PTEN


SGR


TE


TRW


WYN


XOM


THURS OCT 30 AFT


ACS


AKAM


BARE


BMC


CHK


CTX


DNB


ELY


ERTS


ESRX


FBN


IDCC


KLAC


KND


MCRS


MEE


MHO


MIL


MNST


O


OII


OSG


PSYS


SBAC


SQNM


SPN


SWN


TSRA


UNM


VSEA


WRI


WYNN



FRI OCT 31 BEF


AEE


AEP


AIV


AXL


B


CLX


CMI


CVX


EYE


KBR


MDC


NYX


PEG


PGN


RSG


WY


MON NOV 3 BEF


AMT


ASF


AYE


COL


DVA


GAS


GT


OSK


PEI


SPG


SYY


MON NOV 3 AFT


ADP


APC


CRK


EOG


FST


GHM


HCN


HLF


JCOM


MA


MHK


OTEX


PBI


PFG


PPS


SM


UDR


TUES NOV 4 BEF


ADM


AEE


AMSC


DF


DNR


EMR


EXPD


HCP


HNT


HOC


JEC


JOE


LPX


MAC


MVL


NI


RDC


RTI


TDC


TEN


VNO


WTI


XEC


TUES NOV 4 AFT


AMMD


BRE


CBL


DEI


FCH


JKHY


NHP


NSR


PPL


SGY


VTR


WTW


WED NOV 5 BEF


ABK


AGU


BBG


BCE


BDX


CMS


CNP


COCO


CSE


CTSH


DLR


DUK


DVN


FCN


FWLT


HLS


HSIC


IACI


KIM


KWK


MHS


MMC


MT


PCS


PQ


RIG


RL


RRD


TAP


TWX


UPL


WW


XNPT


WED NOV 5 AFT


ACLI


AINV


ATVI


AVB


CCI


CECO


CRL


CSCO


CUZ


DOX


ECLP


FIC


GDP


HTX


LEAP


LFG


MDR


MNT


NFP


OKE


PNM


PVA


SUN


THQI


TX


VMC


XCO


XTO


THURS NOV 6 BEF


ABV


AN


ANSS


BR


BRL


BRS


BX


CEG


CLR

CVC


CXW


DPTR


DTV


EP


FLO


FTO


HK


HOS


HUN


KEG


KG


LAMR


LXP


MFC


MIC


NDAQ


OMG


ROCK


SE


SFY


SNH


TEL


URS


VCI


VRX


WMB


WNR


THURS NOV 6 AFT


BYI


CBG


DIS


DLB


FLR


FSYS


FTI


GNW


MVSN


NFG


PCLN


PDLI


PSA


PXP


QCOM


RMD


RRGB


SD


TBSI


VRSN




FRI NOV 7 BEF


AYR


BAM


CGV


CPN


CTB


ED


EIX


F


LPNT


MIR


NAT


RRI


S


SSP


WIN


WR



ProTrading Network

 

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