FRI. AUG. 1 THOUGHTS

Something similar was written a few weeks ago along the same vein, but it must be pointed out that the calendar now reads “August.” Typically, much of European business ceases to exist for the month (with of course the major exception being the restaurants and the tourist spots). In the U.S., earnings season winds down after next week and it is typically the hottest month of the year weather-wise. Add to the mix that the Olympics will take place on the Asian continent so many eyes will be on that. Last year was very atypical as the financial crisis began accelerating rapidly. However, in most years (particularly after a bit of a stock market rally- or bounce- in a bear market), August can be a perilous month for day trading. Thus, external events aside which cannot be foreseen, be extra careful trading-wise. Have a reason to do all trades and be inactive when the market is listless. There will be opportunities; there always are. However, the opportunities are less numerous in nature in the latter half of August in particular. The net because there is a positive to this- do a little extra when things are busy intra-day throughout the month because the opportunities that are there are smoother as people simply want to do business and go to the beach, but certainly pull back on the trading when (and if) the market indeed gets quiet. With all of this said, as long as the markets are volatile, it is not time for the beaches yet.

Overnight, markets were down mildly overseas. Oil is down again in the early going. And futures are up following the unemployment data. If the market holds its strength into the open, it will likely be an A-B-A2 to upside for the day in quiet trading as it is gonna be perfect weather-wise in the New York area today. There should be one little sell off but there seems to be an underlying bid to the market. As long as there are no external events, it hsould be a relatively mild day after the first hour.

Reiterating-New code for the next few days if the whole story is not there due to an expansive number of ideas-
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified

Good-

SWIM- great earnings

VPRT- great earnings

KLAC- good earnings

THOR- great earnings

GHM- good earnings

ANR- way up on battle for takeover; if CLF (which should trade higher) opens up and goes negative, looking to short thru unch

Bad-

ATVI- mediocre earnings

CHK- only beat by a penny; whisper expectations higher

VCLK- warned.

SYNA- mediocre earnings

CTSH- weak earnings

VRTX- weak earnings

ELN, BIIB- negative drug news

NYX- bad earnings

OSK- bad earnings

PPL- bad earnings

CVX- missed earnings; really like this through unch if oil begins rallying




Table of today’s earnings:

FRI AUG 1 BEF

AEE .73/1.95B 1.33/2.25B 3.09/8.49B 3.57/9.07B

AIV .81/395M .82/397M 3.25/1.70B 3.41/1.69B

ASF .43/418M .45/423M 1.87/1.73B 2.00/1.90B

BW .43/236M .53/255M 1.89/1.02B 2.32/1.10B

BYD .27/463M .32/459M 1.23/1.86B 1.27/1.88B

CI .97/4.76B 1.11/4.83B 4.17/19.04B 4.81/20.16B

CLX 1.11/1.48B .88/1.35B 3.23/5.26B 3.72/5.62B

CVX 3.03/92.41B 3.82/92.97B 12.62/313.00B 13.11/330.25B

EQT .43/290B .41/265M 2.06/1.58B 2.73/1.63B

FE .96/3.55B 1.50/4.55B 4.28/13.65B 5.36/14.82B

GHM .79/? .99/? 3.53/85M 4.19/?

GM -2.63/44.57B -2.00/44.25B -6.48/175.97B -3.10/182.90B

IR .89/3.06B 1.07/4.44B 3.71/13.98B 4.31/17.75B

JAVA .26/3.78B .11/3.21B .82/13.88B .96/14.03B

KBR .36/2.33B .41/2.35B 1.78/9.51B 1.91/9.43B

NT -.04/2.50B .19/2.74B .57/11.20B .93/11.59B

NYX .78/815M .78/818M 3.27/3.32B 4.03/3.58B

OSK 1.05/1.89B .92/1.80B 3.44/6.97B 3.32/7.03B

PPL .55/1.71B .62/1.73B 2.42/7.17B 2.51/7.27B

PEG .59/2.79B 1.05/3.36B 3.00/14.01B 3.31/14.57B

RAS ?/57M ?/56M ?/202M ?/203M

TDW1.52/333M 1.74/347M 7.17/1.40B 8.28/1.57B



Good luck today.

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