TUES. AUG. 12 THOUGHTS

Whether one uses fundamental analysis, technical analysis, a blend of the two, random strategies based on events like the outcome of the Super Bowl or any other methodology to trade stocks, realize this: trading is about 5% all of that stuff and 95% psychological. When nothing changes in a particularly rapidly ascending or descending market, the only reason said market tends to move is psychology. Even when we use the hocus pocus of technical analysis or make an often (uneducated) guess as to whether the departure of a CEO is good for a company, the fact of the matter is that we should largely be focusing on the psychology of the situation. If a stock opens down dramatically because a company missed its earnings estimates and it gets positive on the day, it does not matter se why it happened; just accept the fact that it happened. Our job is to figure out what is inside the head of the person on the other side of the computer terminal. If we control what they are thinking rather than react to it, we will be much better off. Along with this, the most important thing written in this space to date: trust your own instinct and never hesitate. If SHLD trades down 4 because they missed earnings by 60 cents and now it is unchanged on the day, don’t ask why it is not down; rather, merely accept that it is not down and buy it. There are only a few great opportunities each day. If you hesitate, you cannot win. So, since you know better than anybody else knows you, trust yourself. Much more often than not, you are better listening to your own internal voice rather than asking around you what they think of a situation- this is true whether it be a life situation or specifically, a trading situation.


Markets are quiet right now; Asia and Europe mixed. The stock market here will probably seek direction from oil with choppy trading likely ahead.

Reiterating-New code for the next few days if the whole story is not there due to an expansive number of ideas-
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified

Good-

HK- share offering 26.53. It is down 8 points in two days; if it opens down (even pre-open), it is the trade of the day thru 26.53 (which is where it is priced)

CRD/B- very strong yesterday.

LNG- very strong yesterday

LDK- great earnings; CSIQ, STP and other solars will likely sympathize

PBR – good earnings

FLR – great earnings

JASO- fair earnings

MBT – good earnings

FOSL- good earnings

HANS- strong yesterday

CAL, UAUA, DAL, AMR- strong on declining oil

AAPL- upgraded


Bad-

SD- has been beaten down last few days

SONS- bad earnings

MDR- bad earnings

SCA- atrocious earnings



TUES AUG 12 BEF

COMV -.38/13M -.24/26M -.52/99M .04/141M

DNDN -.22/70K -.23/90K -.93/450K -.84/2.91M

FOSL .25/347M .56/411M 2.21/1.65B 2.64/1.87B

GIGM .17/53M .17/53M .77/222M 1.08/286M

GRO ?/44M ?/16M ?/92M .18/101M

HPT 1.22/295M 1.21/295M 4.80/1.35B 4.79/1.35B

JASO .15/170M .28/305M .91/1.03B 1.47/1.73B

MBT ?/2.56B ?/2.80B 6.41/10.33B 7.12/11.68B

SWC .22/217M .46/226M .90/822M .99/803M

TJX .45/4.61B .62/5.05B 2.26/20.18B 2.47/21.20B

TWTC .01/290M .04/297M .13/1.18B .45/1.28B

VSE .02/925M -.01/1.09B .09/3.81B .43/5.34B

WW .80/430M .85/435M 3.35/1.74B 3.71/1.86B

TUES AUG 12 AFT

AMAT .14/1.84B .19/2.02B .78/8.08B 1.07/9.26B

BOBE .44/443M .49/444M 2.10/1.81B 2.44/1.90B

CREE .09/131M .10/137M .37/488M .53/592M

NVDA .12/908M .22/1.01B 1.01/4.16B 1.22/4.43B

Good luck today.

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