Wednesday, August 6, 2008

New addition to the Kolodny Family

This morning, at or about 3am, Robyn Kolodny gave birth to Samara Ada Kolodny. The proud father and husband, Erik Kolodny will be spending his coming days with his family.

ProTrading Network

Tuesday, August 5, 2008


So oil had another major sell-off yesterday and the market sighed ho-hum-like. Why? It is as simple as it gets- the 2nd largest sector of the S&P 500 after the financial sector is the energy sector. As discussed in a blog post early last month, it is entirely possible for oil prices to fall yet the stock market falls with it. Stocks in the energy, steel, materials, and metals sector were all hit very hard yesterday with issues like FCX down 11, POT down 22, MOS down 14, and many other equities in similar industries down 15% or so across the board. This is one of those instances in which watching the market barometers do not matter. Furthermore, this hammers home a point which has been repeatedly made in this space- this blog is aimed for day traders. It does not matter if the market is up or down- you want to be where the action is. So, don’t get mixed up in the ‘why’s and ‘why nots’ of certain moves if you are trying to make a living from day trading; simply go with it, trade rapidly, limit your risk, and for the most part you will be better off.

Previous paragraph notwithstanding, there was a notable change in tone in the European bourses with stocks in Germany for instance up over 1%. Oil continues its plunge in the early going. Futures are very strong in the U.S.—a trend that will likely continue as financials are up as well. Day-trading wise, it will be a hard day in all likelihood with much of the action taking place in the first and last hour of the day. The Fed will announce its interest rate policy at 2;15PM (a near certainty that interest rates will remain unchanged).

TGIC- may be interesting thru yesterday’s high of 2.47 if/when it gets there

NUE, X- among the steels that were clobbered yesterday. Look to buy/short thru unch depending on where they open or an A-B-A2 of some sort; preferably to long side.

MEE, FCX, POT, HK, ACI ,BTU, CHK, PBR, WLT, UDRL, LDL, TRA, MOS- among the energies and materials that were clobbered yesterday. Look to buy/short thru unch depending on where they open or an A-B-A2 of some sort; preferably to long side.

DCT- bad earnings; looking for A-B-A2 to downside in particular

JRCC- bad earnings. If coals bounce, definitely a buy thru unch otherwise an A-B-A2 to downside

MVL- good earnings. Likely A-B-A2 to upside

MSTR- terrible earnings…looking for A-B-A2 to downside particularly if it opens north of 58.

HNT- terrible earnings; looking at some sort of A-B-A2, particularly if it opens near unch (which it probably will not).


ACOR -.48/12M -.48/13.12M -2.10/51M -2.22/75M

ADM .67/16.03B .67/16.74B 2.91/64.04B 2.96/69.89B

ALD .32/130M .33/138M 1.41/533M 1.42/596M

AMSC -.06/40M -.07/42M -.22/176M .18/250M

BBG .63/152M .68/164M 2.82/645M 3.44/768M

CEDC .51/388M .76/434M 2.77/1.69B 3.82/1.99B

CMS .13/1.41B .28/1.30B 1.21/6.73B 1.31/6.95B

COV .66/2.49B .65/2.51B 2.56/9.75B 2.89/10.40B

CSE .24/160M .42/175M 1.70/671M 1.92/906M

DHI -.70/1.44B -.31/1.78B -5.33/6.64B .31/5.85B

DNR .55/374M .57/385M 2.14/1.49B 2.58/1.71B

DTG -.41/448M .73/542M -.44/1.80B .74/1.89B

DUK .25/3.15B .46/3.80B 1.28/13.37B 1.35/13.81B

EAT .42/932M .37/889M 1.41/3.61B 1.59/3.66B

EMR .81/6.41B .88/6.68B 3.09/24.71B 3.41/26.26B

EPL .47/119M .73/134M 1.62/472M 2.73/565M

EXPD .34/1.45B .39/1.61B 1.42/6.01B 1.70/6.93B

GET .20/255M .01/243M .25/974M .96/1.08B

HEW .46/772M .50/787M 1.91/3.12B 2.23/3.26B

HNT .74/3.82B 1.08/3.85B 3.17/15.36B 3.68/16.25B

HSIC .68/1.58B .74/1.67B 2.96/6.66B 3.38/7.19B

JOE .11/86M .14/83M .82/380M .59/367M

JRCC -.28/158M .15/173M -.69/660M 5.98/1.02B

LEAP .03/478M -.25/504M -.76/1.98B -.05/2.51B

MGM .43/1.89B .40/1.87B 1.65/7.52B 1.91/7.64B

MVL .44/129M .54/168M 1.97/547M 1.97/637M

PG .78/21.05B 1.00/21.69B 3.50/83.29B 3.85/88.40B

PDX .78/249M .86/258M 3.19/1.02B 3.64/1.13B

PXD 1.36/659M 1.50/714M 5.52/2.65B 7.71/3.24B

RDC 1.04/564M 1.18/621M 4.35/2.33B 5.33/2.69B

RRI .17/2.67B .67/3.59B 1.17/12.03B 1.30/12.43B

TAP 1.16/1.76B 1.12/1.43B 3.51/5.93B 3.84/5.57B

VNO 1.34/648M 1.32/656M 7.29/2.83B 6.20/2.94B

WY -.22/3.65B .03/3.75B -.38/13.76B 1.13/11.91B

XEC 2.53/600M 2.59/620M 9.00/2.28B 7.99/2.20B


ACAS .72/279M .74/296M 2.98/1.12B 3.04/1.30B

AMKR .28/698M .35/740M 1.34/2.89B 1.38/3.05B

ARNA -.74/2.73M -.75/3.27M -2.98/13.11M -2.02/40M

BID 1.41/319M -.17/118M 2.41/902M 2.60/946M

BMRN .03/66M .10/76M .49/312M 1.14/422M

CBL .80/267M .82/274M 3.46/1.12B 3.66/1.17B

CCRT -1.47/52M .10/162M -3.32/377M .98/751M

CRL .73/344M .77/348M 2.97/1.38B 3.40/1.53B

CSC .76/4.29B .90/4.29B 4.30/17.67B 4.68/18.48B

CSCO .39/10.31B .40/10.40B 1.55/39.49B 1.69/43.72B

DEI .32/145M .33/140M 1.32/560M 1.44/587M

FCH .76/286M .56/272M 2.30/1.13B 2.50/1.15B

FIS .35/848M .40/863M 1.49/3.45B 1.73/3.70B

FST 1.51/456M 1.65/477M 5.85/1.80B 6.05/1.95B

GGC -.44/841M -.31/846M -2.69/3.24B -1.29/3.30B

GLBL .38/319M .43/320M 1.42/1.25B 1.85/1.45B

HCN .83/142M .84/147M 3.33/555M 3.52/601M

HLF .92/613M .84/602M 3.59/2.46B 4.15/2.70B

HME .86/126M .87/126M 3.39/505M 3.57/521M

HRS 1.02/1.43B .94/1.34B 3.46/5.30B 4.10/5.80B

INSP -.01/35M -.01/36M 0.00/153M .26/159M

IO .14/179M .24/237M .79/806M 1.10/1.01B

JBX .51/694M .46/696M 2.01/2.98B 2.28/3.09B

JCOM .40/61M .41/63M 1.61/248M 1.87/283M

LPS .57/467M .60/472M 2.38/1.84B 2.70/1.98B

MDRX .11/77M .16/85M .54/326M .74/383M

MOLX .41/869M .40/878M 1.42/3.33B 1.75/3.57B

NFP .67/304M .83/347M 3.05/1.35B 3.40/1.56B

NILE .17/74M .17/74M 1.03/350M 1.25/404M

NSR .29/119M .32/128M .92/502M 1.51/573M

NWS ? ? ? ?

ONXX .07/25M .12/30M .58/129M 1.32/172M

PCLN 1.41/496M 2.05/551M 5.54/1.88B 6.95/2.23B

RMD .39/220M .38/217M 1.49/821M 1.74/967M

SGY 2.90/227M 2.44/261M 10.57/1.05B 10.48/1.43B

SHO .86/277M .73/258M 2.95/1.08B 2.96/1.08B

SNCR .09/25M .12/29M .48/117M .66/140M

TX 1.22/2.49B 1.15/2.68B 5.31/10.75B 5.62/11.59B

UPL .65/281M .75/321M 3.01/1.22B 3.92/1.62B

VMC 1.10/1.07B 1.24/1.09B 3.29/3.97B 3.91/4.14B

VTR .69/124M .72/125M 2.81/497M 3.03/515M

WFMI .31/1.91B .27/1.93B 1.15/8.17B 1.53/9.47B

WMS .35/179M .25/157M 1.13/644M 1.42/722M
XCO .25/323M .29/334M 1.14/1.26B 1.43/1.47B

Good luck today.

Monday, August 4, 2008


On the surface, Friday was a relatively quiet summer day for the markets. But underneath the surface was something quite noticeable. Namely, as was discussed in this space few days ago, a leadership change of sort seemed to have subtly taken place in the last couple of weeks. This was very discernable on Friday. If you look at the energy sectors, stocks from oils to coals were all down on Friday. However, financials were broadly higher across the board with stocks like WB trading ahead almost 10% on the session on an otherwise sedate afternoon. Focusing on the day trading aspect here, it is very hard to change mindsets. This is true of course on the biggies- religion, politics…and of course sports! But, it is very true in trading as well. This is being brought up because while things can change at a moment’s notice, people are programmed to buy oils and sell financials based on the last few months. But the calendar does not read June anymore. It is a different time. So, should the recent rend continue, please be careful not to get caught on both sides. Obviously, things may reassert, but if not, a lot of people will get short financials intra-day simply because it has worked (and long oils as well) and get hit on both sides. Again, we are not forecasting on an intermediate-term what will happen, however it is important to note that a distinct change seems to have occurred underneath the market.

Overnight, markets throughout the world were down anywhere from fractionally to about 1.5% in Hong Kong. Oil is quiet, but a developing tropical storm in the Gulf may change that this week. Futures in the early going are down a little bit, but the story of the day- barring unforeseen circumstances- is that it is a summer Monday in August with a clear blue sky so not looking for an overly dramatic day today.

ELN- the crushing continued on Friday. It is bouncing a little this morning after S&P reaffirmed its debt on Friday afternoon. Look for A-B-A2 to upside if stock holds opening levels otherwise a short thru unch.

VPRT- closed near its high on strong earnings. If it opens flat to down, looking to buy north of 31 the first time through that spot on short covering.

CMED- good earnings. Looking for A-B-A2 of some sort and/or a short thru unch.

HUM- Looking for A-B-A2 in upside to particular after good earnings

X,NUE,CNX- closed on their lows on Friday. Looking for shorts thru unch if they open higher and break down a bit or A-B-A2 to upside.

ABK, RDN, UAM, PMI- all strong on Friday. No definitive trades per se, but a litmus test on the financials today will be how these hold up because they were all strong on Friday.

EYE- very bad earnings. Looking for A-B-A2 of some sort as it should open well lower.

Slim pickings. Tread carefully as there seems to be that August lull today.


BBD .39/6.20B .45/6.98B 1.71/23.84B 2.02/26.99B

CHD .63/581M .78/636M 2.81/2.41B 3.19/2.57B

CMED ?/33M ?/36M 1.74/169M 2.29/224M

CTB -.25/715M -.04/809M -.07/3.02B .77/3.20B

DISH .60/2.91B .54/2.92B 2.23/11.66B 2.51/12.44B

ERES .12/36M .12/35M .50/142M .64/159M

ETM .34/121M .37/118M 1.26/455M 1.20/447M

EYE .27/308M .30/297M 1.20/1.23B 1.58/1.32B

HUM 1.18/7.14B 1.36/7.24B 4.20/28.51B 5.71/30.93B

ICE 1.19/196M 1.33/215M 5.16/855M 6.54/1.10B

MDU .57/1.12B .74/1.33B 2.28/4.86B 2.44/5.02B

MGA 1.82/6.58B 1.26/6.09B 6.17/25.88B 6.53/26.84B

SBAC -.10/113M -.10/120M -.42/471M -.15/535M

TTEC .25/353M .28/355M 1.20/1.46B 1.34/1.58B


APC 1.77/3.68B 1.84/3.93B 6.77/14.82B 6.32/15.15B
ASCA .32/331M .35/341M 1.20/1.31B 1.34/1.37B

AXS 1.34/757M 1.18/767M 5.21/2.96B 5.09/2.97B

BLKB .24/73M .26/79M .98/302M 1.17/350M

CRK 1.20/227M 1.16/222M 4.95/888M 4.42/814M

CSR .37/86M .43/103M 1.66/392M 2.10/512M

DCT .18/65M .18/66M .70/263M .74/270M

DVA .83/1.37B .86/1.38B 3.39/5.52B 3.72/5.85B

HCP .56/262M .56/263M 2.25/1.06B 2.40/1.10B

HMA .11/1.13B .09/1.11B .47/4.55B .55/4.82B

HR .39/55M .40/56M 1.58/224M 1.64/240M

OEH .45/182M .64/200M 1.07/663M 1.34/716M

PBI .67/1.61B .70/1.61B 2.86/6.55B 3.16/6.85B

PFG .95/2.83B .97/2.89B 3.83/11.20B 4.45/12.07B

PPS .41/77M .46/81M 1.65/306M 1.87/323M

RATE .33/40M .35/41M 1.53/166M 1.87/194M

SM 1.28/297M 1.23/296M 5.08/1.27B 4.73/1.28B

UDR .36/129M .37/132M 1.51/520M 1.58/552M

WEN .37/627M .41/634M 1.11/2.44B 1.42/2.42B

WGL .14/478M -.35/325M 2.42/2.58B 2.41/2.64B
WY -.22/3.65B .03/3.75B -.38/13.76B 1.13/11.91B

Good luck today.